GRAND NATIONAL ODDS: 20 OF FRONT 21 ARE VALUE ON BETDAQ: Of the leading 21 horses in Saturday’s Grand National market, 20 were on offer this morning at equivalent prices bigger than any major bookmaker. Daqman takes his pick.
TOMORROW: LOOK OUT FOR DAQMAN’S ABC GUIDE: Spot what the stats say, plus the stayers and non-fallers and those which know the fences. It’s all part of Daqman’s ABC-plus special guide to every one of Saturday’s runners.
Would you only draw half your money from a bookie? That’s what he expects, as the Grand National edges closer. You can get almost double his prices on 10 or a dozen horses at the front of the BETDAQ market.
In fact, 20 of the first 21 in Saturday’s Aintree market are bigger offers on the Daq than at fixed odds with some firms, yet the BETDAQ ‘book’ of offers overrounds at only 118%.
If you want to read something into it, the odd one out among them – or should I say ‘odds’ one out – is, at time of writing, Giles Cross, who was backed all round yesterday as the rains came.
Soft ground also significantly boosts the chances of West End Rocker, and he, too, was tight everywhere; not much between book and exchange.
The changed ground makes this more of a National for the old-fashioned stayer, and my pick at this stage would be Killyglen, who looked almost certain to be placed last year until he came to grief four out.
Killyglen doesn’t like a mudbath but that only happens once in a blue moon at Aintree; the ground dries well and I would bet on ‘good to soft, soft in places’ come the day.
One of the important form lines for any Grand National winner is ‘trained for the race’ and that certainly applies to Killyglen who, significantly also, had a wind op before his win last time out at Down Royal. I shall take 17.5.
Junior, 8-1 with Coral is 16.0 on BETDAQ; stablemate and last year’s winner Ballabriggs is 12-1 with bookies, 20.0 on the Daq; Chicago Grey, 12-1 with a spread of bookies is also on offer here at 20.0; Sunnyhillboy is 25.0 compared with some at 14-1; Cappa Bleu 17.5 (10-1 with Ladbrokes); Treacle 27.0 (14-1 with Coral); Organisedconfusion 38.0 (20-1 with several bookies); Always Right 39.0 (20-1); Planet Of Sound 50.0 (25-1); and so it goes on.
There are four Graded races today at Fairyhouse, where money talked in all bar their National yesterday; five winners finished between 7-4 and 11-2 and two others were 10-1 and 12-1.
The one I like is Shot From The Hip, whose stablemate, the Cheltenham winner, Bellvano, lets him in with a low weight in the Dan Moore Chase.
Shot From The Hip (5.30) has had a light chasing campaign with Fairyhouse and Punchestown in mind and is currently 9lb below his Grade-1 winning hurdles form.
The English turf Flat and the holiday jumps were as hard as ever yesterday but we must check out the two quality races at Pontefract, class 2 (the 1m 2f handicap at 4.25, ideal for Splendid Light) and class 3 (the sprint at 3.20) with one simple edge in mind: you must have a low draw in big fields.
Three-year-old handicaps are a notorious wallet-drainer until at least Derby time but, at this time last year, there were high hopes of Es Que Love (3.20) who, in fact, ran in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. As a Spring horse, well drawn today, the 7.6 was interesting.
Hits Only Jude (2.20) won the equivalent race easily last year and has the blinkers back on; the front two in the betting – the grey is 7.0 as I write – both have to transfer AW form to turf.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.3pts win HITS ONLY JUDE (2.20 Pontefract)
BET 3pts win ES QUE LOVE (3.20 Pontefract)
BET 11pts win (nap) SPLENDID LIGHT (4.25 Pontefract)
BET 6.7pts win SHOT FROM THE HIP (5.30 Fairyhouse)
ANTE-POST: WIN-50 JACKPOT: BET 3pts win KILLYGLEN (Grand National, Liverpool, Saturday)
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