THEY’RE OFF AT DONCASTER WITH DAQMAN ALREADY 169 POINTS UP: The English turf season on the Flat starts today at Doncaster, with Daqman 169 points up on his 2012 jackpots, and 231 points in profit since December 3rd.
Forget the favourites. That’s what the stats say for Doncaster and Kempton today, but there is one exception: the Lincoln itself. Two of the last three winners have been favourite and six from the last nine have scored at 10-1 SP or less.
I’ve had my outsider, ante-post on Field Of Dream, so what’s going to be the hot-pot worth backing in the offers between now and the ‘off’ at 3.15?
2.05 Doncaster (Spring Mile): Pat Smullen, over here for the Lincoln, has a solid ride on Reve De Nuit, and the stable of last year’s early sequence horse Mont Ras is in top gear.
But, with their scope for improvement, four-year-olds are usually dominant in this (8-10 in the decade), and in-form trainers with runners in that age group are Charlie Hills (Captain Bertie 10.0 on Betdaq this morning), Michael Dods (Shamdarley 8.2) and Mark Johnston (Crown Counsel 17.0 and Kingscroft 26.0).
All four winners since the race came back to Doncaster have been rated 89-92: the five within that tight parameter today include Crown Counsel, who is an April-June horse and has had a recent run as if targeting this.
2.20 Kempton (Magnolia Stakes): The favourite has won only once in recent years, so reach for the worry-beads if you are lumping on Arctic Cosmos.
The 2010 St leger winner is an entire, found potentially ‘an easy’ Listed, but both Fair Trade and Hurricane Higgins have been gelded over the winter and, in a small field, jockey tactics – and balls – can decide a race.
2.40 Doncaster (Cammidge Trophy): Like the Spring Mile, which has had only one winning favourite in 10 years, this is another race for outsiders, also with just the one winner at the front of the market since 2003, and success at 22-1 and 40-1 since then.
But still more significant for your future betting is this stunning Cammidge stat: the last five winners all failed to score again in their year. In other words, they were ‘got up’ for this, and were not forgiven by the handicapper.
The only trainer to win this with a three-year-old in recent years is Mark Johnston, and Bannock, already a winner at this level, has two more edges: a draw on the stand rail and fitness from a recent run (he won second time back last season): 9-1 is tasty.
Waffle (8.8) was pipped in the Wokingham and in his opening race here last season. Fran Berry is over to ride and he’s clearly been ‘got up’ for this one.
3.15 Doncaster (Lincoln Handicap): With six winning favourites from the last 11, a late-money gamble is the significant factor in the modern Lincoln.
Field Of Dream was my outsider to close in the market: he hasn’t. But the Meydan also-ran has one of our best handicap jockeys booked and a handy draw in stall five; he could be in front at the furlong pole. Back and lay.
Last year’s Lincoln winner had been seen at Meydan and another runner there this winter, Man Of Action, though badly in now with Eton Forever (won the 2011 Spring Mile), was a big improver last summer after being gelded.
Fury, who ran in Frankel’s 2,000 Guineas, has also been gelded, and runs for three-times Lincoln winning trainer, William Haggas.
Dropped 10lb since last summer and in his first handicap today, Fury (8.0 on the Daq as I write) has a much better draw in 9 than Man Of Action (20) and the grey will have apprentice-find Adam Beschizza to steer him.
Man Of Action and Start Right are both first-time blinkers or visors but trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a poor record (1-17) when they are applied.
Cocozza could be fancied as a Group performer in Ireland last year and, like Stevie Thunder, stays further, which has been another hallmark of recent Lincoln winners.
Summary: I can see Field of Dream and Stevie Thunder leading on one side and Cocozza on the other from the high stalls. Fury and Eton Forever will then attack the stand rail.
3.30 Kempton (Rosebery Handicap): Eshtibaak has gone clear in the market but there has been only one winning favourite in the decade and, just like the Cammidge, the last five winners failed to score again in their year.
6.40 Meydan (Dubai World Cup): The huge Meydan card – five Group 1s – has taken our top jockeys away from Doncaster: Johnny Murtagh, Ryan Moore, Kieren Fallon, Silvestre De Sousa, Richard Hills, Frankie Dettori, Jamie Spencer.. even Hayley Turner.
All eyes are on young Joseph O’Brien, who has a big test here on eight times Group 1 winner So You Think, the flop of last year’s Arc but well drawn tonight.
However, only Dettori and Hills have been able to break the monopoly of foreign riders in this race since it was launched in 1996, and So You Think saw the back of Game On Dude in the Breeders Cup – not to mention the pretty rear of his rider, Chantal Sutherland – at Churchill Downs in November, and the pair looked awesome in a small field at Santa Anita recently.
Smart Falcon beat Transcend in November further than did the winner of the World Cup when they were one-two at this time last year but Smart Falcon hated the trip over and Transcend has eased in the market.
It will be a great triumph for Marco Botti if he can score with the ex-French colt Planteur, and a great one for our record books as having had his prep gallop on the AW at Wolverhampton!
But Game On Dude is the gutsiest world-stage performer I’ve seen in some time – and Chantal is my X factor wow – so I’m going for the 10.5 offers this morning and the greatest ever ride by a woman jockey.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.3pts win CAPTAIN BERTIE, 1.8pts win CROWN COUNSEL and 0.7pts win (stakes saver) SHAMDARLEY (2.05 Doncaster)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.8pts win WAFFLE and 3.7pts win BANNOCK (2.40 Doncaster)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 4.2pts win on each FURY and ETON FOREVER plus 2.3pts place FIELD OF DREAM: already ante-post, 1.3pts win FIELD OF DREAM (3.15 Doncaster)
BET 2.1pts win and place GAME ON DUDE (6.40 Meydan)
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